PSO based Neural Networks vs. Traditional Statistical Models for Seasonal Time Series Forecasting

Seasonality is a distinctive characteristic which is often observed in many practical time series. Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) are a class of promising models for efficiently recognizing and forecasting seasonal patterns. In this paper, the Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) approach is used to enhance the forecasting strengths of feedforward ANN (FANN) as well as Elman ANN (EANN) models for seasonal data. Three widely popular versions of the basic PSO algorithm, viz. Trelea-I, Trelea-II and Clerc-Type1 are considered here. The empirical analysis is conducted on three real-world seasonal time series. Results clearly show that each version of the PSO algorithm achieves notably better forecasting accuracies than the standard Backpropagation (BP) training method for both FANN and EANN models. The neural network forecasting results are also compared with those from the three traditional statistical models, viz. Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA), Holt-Winters (HW) and Support Vector Machine (SVM). The comparison demonstrates that both PSO and BP based neural networks outperform SARIMA, HW and SVM models for all three time series datasets. The forecasting performances of ANNs are further improved through combining the outputs from the three PSO based models.Comment: 4 figures, 4 tables, 31 references, conference proceeding

Evaluation of Wind-Induced Resuspension on the Performance of a Mine Tailings Storage Facility

Proper management of sulphide rich reactive mine tailings is a growing concern for mining industries. Oxidation of tailings can release acids and toxic metals into the surroundings, which can potentially pollute the ecosystem. Confining tailings under shallow water covers is one of the most successfully applied technologies for long-term storage. The water has lower solubility and diffusivity of oxygen than air and can significantly reduce the influx of oxygen to the bed tailings. However, wind-induced waves and currents in the water can resuspend bed tailings and ultimately result in oxidation. Extensive field investigations were carried out to evaluate the performance of the existing Shebandowan tailings storage facility, Thunder Bay, Ontario, Canada. Sediment traps and optical backscatter sensor data showed some amount of resuspension occurring at this site under existing conditions. The role of wind induced circulation currents in the resuspension was not clear from previous studies. A semi empirical approach was used to determine the total bed shear stress in the tailings pond, where the current fraction of the bed shear stress was obtained by fitting the Log-Law to mean velocity profiles measured using acoustic Doppler current profiler (ADCP). This was the first study, where the actual currents were measured in a tailings pond. The results showed that wave-current interactions increased the total bed shear stress. A graphical approach was developed to obtain the critical shear stress and erosion rate characteristics of the bed tailings using field recorded resuspension. Previous studies obtained these parameters from laboratory column and flume experiments that did not necessarily represent field conditions. Based on the field investigations, some major improvements were made to an existing model of water cover design and the results show that wave-current interactions significantly increase the required depth of water from 3.9 m in the absence of wave-current interaction to 6.3 m to completely eliminate tailings resuspension in the west cell of the tailings pond. However, the optimized water depths of less than 2.2 m, 1.1 m, and 2.0 m for the west, middle and east cells were sufficient to reduce tailings concentration to values within the regulatory limit of 15 mg/L, respectively

Functional constipation in children; changing clinical spectrum with unusual presentation: A case report

Constipation in children is progressively increasing day by day because of changing lifestyle and dietary intake. Sometimes, functionalconstipation cases are misdiagnosed as functional abdominal pain because of inappropriate history and examination. We present an8-years-old boy with a history of intermittent moderate to severe abdominal pain for 2 months. Basic blood investigations andultrasound of the abdomen were normal, surprisingly, X-ray of the abdomen revealed the diagnosis. Simple X-ray erect abdomen isvery useful in a special situation for the diagnosis of functional constipation

Death clustering in India: Levels, trends, and differentials, 1992–2016

Background: India and many of its bigger states could not achieve the national goal related with child health based on 4th UN Millennium Development Goal. There is a need to look for different approaches which deal with infant mortality. Literature emphasizes clustering of infant deaths in families has implications on infant mortality. Objective: The present study attempts to examine the levels, trends, and differentials of clustering of infant deaths in families in India using National Family Health Survey (NFHS) dataset and how they changed over the years. Materials and Methods: Study used bivariate analysis and multilevel random effects logit model based intraclass correlation coefficient and median odds ratio to examine the clustering of deaths in families, in India. Results: There has been a consistent decline in both infant mortality rate (IMR) and clustering of infant deaths in families in India between 1992 and 2016. However, the pace of decline was faster after 2005. States such as Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, and Bihar are the major contributors in clustering of infant deaths in families. In Kerala, clustering of infant deaths has been disappeared in families while among relatively more developed states such as Maharashtra and Tamil Nadu have experienced a reduction in clustering of infant deaths in families by an amount of <1%. Conclusion: Between NFHS-3 and NFHS-4 there has been an increase in clustering of infant deaths among mothers with age at first birth >30 years and for mothers who have received higher education. IMR can be reduced to a greater extent if government policies and health resources are directed toward the families experiencing the clustering of infant deaths

Comparing socio-economic inequalities in self-reported and undiagnosed hypertension among adults 45 years and over in India: what explains these inequalities?

Background: Hypertension (HTN) is a leading cause of mortality and morbidity in developing countries. For India, the hidden burden of undiagnosed hypertension is a major concern. This study aims to assess and explain socio-economic inequalities among self-reported and undiagnosed hypertensives in India. Methods: The study utilized data from the Longitudinal Aging Study in India (LASI), a nationally-representative survey of more than 72,000 older adults. The study used funnel plots, multivariable logistic regression, concentration indices, and decomposition analysis to explain the socio-economic gap in the prevalence of self-reported and undiagnosed hypertension between the richest and the poorest groups. Results: The prevalence of self-reported and undiagnosed hypertension was 27.4 and 17.8% respectively. Monthly per capita consumption expenditure (MPCE) quintile was positively associated with self-reported hypertension but negatively associated with undiagnosed hypertension. The concentration index for self-reported hypertension was 0.133 (p < 0.001), whereas it was − 0.047 (p < 0.001) for undiagnosed hypertension. Over 50% of the inequalities in self-reported hypertension were explained by the differences in the distribution of the characteristics whereas inequalities remained unexplained for undiagnosed hypertension. Obesity and diabetes were key contributors to pro-rich inequality. Conclusions: Results imply that self-reported measures underestimate the true prevalence of hypertension and disproportionately affect the poorer MPCE groups. The prevalence of self-reported HTN was higher in the richest group, whereas socio-economic inequality in undiagnosed hypertension was significantly concentrated in the poorest group. As majority of the inequalities remain unexplained in case of undiagnosed hypertension, broader health systems issues including barriers to access to health care may be contributing to inequalities

A longitudinal study of incident hypertension and its determinants in Indian adults aged 45 years and over: evidence from nationally representative WHO-SAGE study (2007-2015) Running head Incident hypertension and its determinants

Objectives: Hypertension (HT) is a leading cause of mortality and morbidity in developing countries. This study aimed to estimate the incidence of HT among adults aged 45 years and older in India and its associated risk factors. Methods: This study used longitudinal data from the Indian sample of the first and second waves of the World Health Organization Study on Global Ageing and Adult Health (WHO-SAGE). A bivariate analysis using Pearson's chi-square test was done to examine the associations of individual, lifestyle, and household characteristics with HT status reported in Wave 2. Incident HT changes were analyzed by adjusting for various covariates in the generalized estimating equation (logit link function) with an exchangeable correlation matrix and robust standard errors. Results: The study found that during the 8-year period from 2007 to 2015, the incidence of HT in individuals aged 45 years and over was 20.8%. Pre-hypertensive individuals had an overall incidence rate of 31.1 per 1,000 [95% confidence interval (CI): 26.20–35.9] and a 2.24 times higher odds ratio: 2.24 (95% CI: 1.65–3.03) of developing incident HT compared to those who were normotensive. Adults aged 45 years and older, overweight/obese individuals, and women were more at risk of incident HT. Conclusion: One in five individuals had developed HT over 8 years, with a greater risk of incident HT among women than men. Pre-hypertensive individuals were at a greater risk of developing incident HT compared to normotensive individuals. The study recommends comprehensive and effective management of pre-HT to tackle the burden of H

Clustering of child deaths among families in low- and middle-income countries: a meta-analysis

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Several studies have examined the phenomenon of "death clustering," in which two or more children born to the same mother or from the same family die at an early age. Therefore, a scientific examination of the results is essential to understand how the survival status of the older siblings affects the survival of the younger siblings. By using meta-analysis, this study aims to provide a quantitative synthesis of the results of studies on "child death clustering" in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). METHODS: This study followed the PRISMA-P 2015 guidelines. We used four electronic databases-PubMed, Medline, Scopus, and Google Scholar with search and citation analysis capabilities. Initially, 140 studies were identified, but only 27 met the eligibility criteria eventually. These were studies that had used the death of a previous child as a covariate to determine the survival status of the index child. The heterogeneity and the publication bias of the studies were examined using the Cochran test, I 2 statistic, and Egger's meta-regression test. RESULTS: The pooled estimate of 114 study estimates for LMICs contains some bias. India's 37 study estimates were distributed more or less equally along the middle line, indicating no publication bias, while there was a slight bias in the estimates for Africa, Latin America, and Bangladesh. The odds of experiencing the death of the index child in the selected LMICs were 2.3 times higher for mothers who had lost any prior child as compared to those mothers who had not had any prior child loss. For African mothers, the odds were five times higher, whereas for Indian mothers, the odds were 1.66 times higher. Mothers' characteristics, such as education, occupation, health-seeking behavior, and maternal competence, significantly affect the child's survival status. CONCLUSION: Achieving the sustainable development goals would not be possible if mothers in countries experiencing high levels of under-five mortality are not provided with better health and nutrition facilities. Mothers who have lost multiple children should be targeted for assistance

Serious adverse events and fatal outcomes following COVID-19 vaccination in the UK: lessons for other countries

Vaccines have taken the centre stage in the fight against COVID-19 pandemic, and in reducing hospitalisation and associated mortality. Countries around the world are heavily dependent on the successful rollout of their vaccination programmes to open up the societies and re-start their economies. However, the success of any vaccine programme, to a large extent, depends upon the efficacy and safety of the vaccines. Given that UK has been way ahead in vaccinating its population, is considered a successful model compared to other countries in Europe and elsewhere and has a yellow card reporting system for adverse events, we use UK as an example to understand the side effects and fatal outcomes following vaccinations. Our results show that AstraZeneca seems to be underperforming in terms of overall reporting of minor adverse events, serious incidents and fatal outcomes following vaccination. The risk of serious anaphylactic reaction and fatal outcome was 1.36 and 1.17 times more in case of AstraZeneca vaccine when compared with Pfizer BioNTech vaccine. The analysis has implications for vaccine policies and programmes both at nation-state and global levels